Asian Nations League: Vietnam Stand on the Edge of Tier One

In early October, at the headquarters of the Asian Football Confederation, a document will be placed on the table of the member federations. There is no cheering, no flags, no match being timed. But for Vietnamese football, this could be one of the most important meetings in a decade.

Its content is an Asian Nations League, held every two years, designed to be integrated directly into World Cup and Asian Cup qualifying. Three tiers. Eighteen teams in the top tier. Eighteen teams in the middle tier. The remaining eleven split into three groups in the lowest tier. A trial in the 2028-2029 period, with a full launch from 2030.

And in the middle of that blueprint, Vietnam stand in a very uncomfortable spot: 17th in Asia, while tier one has only 18 places.

I once was a stranger listening to the pulse outside the door; now I hear the pulse of an entire community. Whenever a structural change like this comes along, I think back to afternoons at the training centre, when the players sat around a small table and asked each other one question: "So who do we play next year?"

That question seems simple. But it is the entire story of Asian football right now.

The original report came from ESPN, and the format details are drawn from the AFC's proposal document. The first notable point: the AFC once considered a standalone Nations League but set that option aside because of two obstacles — a limited number of international match days and organisational costs.

Rather than create another new tournament, the AFC chose to attach the Nations League to World Cup and Asian Cup qualifying itself. The same pool of match days, but the sporting value is multiplied. Each match no longer serves a single goal, but simultaneously counts toward tier ranking, toward a finals ticket, and toward positioning for the next cycle.

The mechanism divides into three tiers based on ranking. Tier one holds the 18 strongest teams on the continent. Tier two holds the next 18. Tier three holds the remaining 11, split into three groups. Between the tiers there is promotion, relegation and play-offs. Each two-year cycle, teams play a double round-robin, home and away — meaning a tier-one team would play as many as 12 matches in the group stage alone.

The most contentious point is that the AFC removes regional grouping entirely. The stated reason: imbalance in the number of teams and in the standard between regions. Previously, Southeast Asian teams were often placed together to ensure competitiveness and reduce travel costs. Now, the groups will be drawn by algorithm, seeded by ranking.

In tier one, the top six of the 18 qualify directly for the World Cup. The top eight enter a knockout round to determine the champion of the new competition. In tier two, the top six qualify for the Asian Cup — a far wider door — but the path to the World Cup is much narrower.

To make room for the new tournament, the AFC proposes moving the Asian Cup from 2031 to 2032. That is a scheduling intervention on a continental scale, and it has not been approved.

This is the part that needs to be made clear. Vietnam's standing in the new system will not be decided by its current ranking, but by the results of a transition period that has not yet taken place.

The AFC has stated clearly: the tier composition for the 2030 launch will be based partly on the results of the 2028-2029 trial, not on FIFA ranking alone. That turns the 2028-2029 period into a "six-pointer season" in the collective sense — where each match no longer decides only one campaign, but also a structural position for years to come.

For Vietnam, this creates a paradox. The team sits 17th in Asia, right on the edge of tier one. A good run of results could lift it into the elite group. A poor run could push it down to tier two — and keep it there for a full cycle. In football, the gap between those two scenarios is sometimes just a handful of matches in a period no one thinks is decisive.

On the FIFA ranking, Vietnam sit 99th in the world. That figure places the team among those who can compete on the continent but have not yet reached the leading group. Under the old system, that position was enough to dream of the third round of World Cup qualifying. Under the new system, it sits exactly on the border between two tiers — where everything is fragile.

What is worth reflecting on is that removing regional grouping can be a double-edged sword. Previously, when qualifying often gathered Southeast Asian teams together, Vietnam had the advantage of familiar pitches, familiar opponents and, more importantly, familiar results. Matches against Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were once a steady source of points. Now that advantage is neutralised. Vietnam will have to earn points against opponents from outside the region, where the gaps in standard and physicality are more pronounced.

In return, removing regional grouping also lifts a ceiling. If strong enough to reach tier one, the team would no longer be trapped in a loop of regional matchups, but measured regularly against Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia. Those are the kind of opponents Vietnamese football once faced only a few times in a decade.

The rhythm of the ball never stops; it is only that we have not stood close enough to hear it. For a team like Vietnam, hearing that rhythm more often is an opportunity, but also a test. Playing strong teams every two months is very different from playing strong teams once every four years. The difference lies not in one match, but in an entire process.

In tier one, a cycle consists of 12 home-and-away matches against top opponents. That demands a squad deep enough, fit enough and rotating enough. Vietnam's current habit — using almost one best XI in every gathering — will no longer fit. If it reaches tier one, the coaching staff will be forced to widen the list, test more options, and accept a trade-off between short-term results and long-term endurance.

This is the point that a purely ranking-based analysis easily overlooks. The issue is not whether Vietnam reaches tier one, but whether it has enough resources to survive there. Reaching tier one and then being relegated the very next cycle is worse than stabilising in tier two as a force capable of promotion at any time.

For the Vietnam Football Federation, this proposal also poses a multi-year planning problem. If tier one is the strategic goal, then the preparation — from youth development, to widening the squad, to hosting home matches — must be calculated from now, not begun in 2028. A national team cannot be built in the few months before a qualifying campaign.

The 2028-2029 trial period has an easily overlooked feature: it runs almost alongside 2030 World Cup qualifying. That means teams will have to play both official qualifiers and the trial tournament within the same pool of international match days. For teams with thin squad depth, this is a double pressure — having to keep results to avoid dropping a tier while also managing fitness to avoid collapse in the decisive stage.

On the commercial side, gathering many meaningful matches into a single system could raise the broadcasting value of AFC-organised competitions. But where that money flows again depends on the tier. A tier-one team appears regularly on screen, attracting sponsorship and fans. A tier-two team has fewer top matches, less spotlight, and therefore fewer commercial opportunities to reinvest in itself.

The most common reading of this proposal is: this is a great opportunity for Vietnamese football. More matches against stronger teams, more chances to develop, a clearer path to the World Cup. That reading is not wrong, but it overlooks an important blind spot.

That blind spot is: the new system opens opportunities, but it also re-prices the entire value of what Vietnam currently has. For years, the measure of Vietnamese football's success has been regional titles — the AFF Cup, the Southeast Asian championships. Those titles carry enormous emotional value, but in a system where the AFC deliberately lowers the role of the regional factor, their strategic value may be diluted.

When the focus shifts to AFC-controlled competitions, where matches take place year-round and carry structural points, a Southeast Asian title is no longer the peak of a cycle. It becomes an event on the calendar, not a milestone on the route. Fans and media may not feel it immediately, but the way they judge the national team will gradually change.

There is a second risk that is rarely mentioned. If Vietnam falls into tier two at launch, the team will be locked into a cycle with fewer top-level matches, fewer development opportunities, and a harder climb back. A downward spiral could form from a short run of results in the 2028-2029 period. In sport, the hardest thing is not climbing up, but avoiding a slide once the system has been divided into tiers.

It should also be added that this entire system remains only a proposal. It has not been approved, and the AFC has made clear it needs to be reviewed by member federations. History shows that major reforms in Asian football rarely go in a straight line. Some smaller federations may object out of fear of being locked into tier three with few meaningful matches. Scheduling conflicts between domestic leagues, the AFF Cup and age-group tournaments have also not been resolved in the document.

But even while the proposal waits, its direction is fairly clear. Asian football is moving toward a tiered system, where each match carries greater structural weight, and where the standing of a football nation is shaped by its ability to sustain a level across multiple cycles.

It is still too early to say this proposal will take shape intact. But one thing is already clear: from now on, each Vietnam match no longer carries only its own meaning. Tactics will become outdated, but the people standing inside the formation will not. And the biggest question for Vietnamese football over the next few years is not who it plays, but how it prepares so that when the tier-one door opens, the team is ready to step through — and to stay.